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Another volatile week in the currency markets, caused by the strong ADP Employment report for the US, the number came at 978K vs. an expectation for 650K. That pushed the market participants to position themselves for better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls for May. However, the number was worst than expected, the Non-Farm Payrolls for the US came at 559K vs. an expectation of 650K. As a result, the USD give up the gains from Thursday and end up lower on Friday, unable to break out of the four-week range. Even the announcement from the FED that it will start selling its portfolio of corporate bond ETFs was not able to lift the USD. However, that is not a surprise because the FED portfolio of 14 billion dollars corporate credit is nothing in comparison to the 120 billion dollars monthly government and mortgage bond purchases.
The mixed US employment data for May and the FED announcement to unwind their corporate bond ETFs, gives the FED room to leave the current amount for their government and mortgage bond purchases unchanged on their monitory meeting on June 16th, 2021.
The focus for the week ahead is on the Bank of Canada interest rate decision on Wednesday, June 9th, 2021, and on the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday, June 10th, 2021.
It is unlikely that the Bank of Canada will reduce its bond purchasing program at this meeting, and if so, that could provide some pullback in the CAD.
The expectation for the ECB to reduce their bond purchasing under the Pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) is high. The question is will the ECB reduced the purchases under PEPP and increase the purchasing under their asset Purchase Program (APP) to avoid legal scrutiny and unset the tapering.
At the beginning of the ECB press conference, the market participants will receive the latest inflation number from the US. Core US inflation rate for May is due on Thursday, June the 10th 2021. Another spike in the US inflation could force the market participants to reprice the FED QE taper odds and timeframe.
The focus for the week ahead is on the following events:
Monday, June 07, 2021
- Australia – Ai Group Services Index for May.
- Australia – ANZ Job Advertisements month over a month for May.
- China – Balance of Trade for May.
- China – Exports year over year for May.
- China – Imports year over year for May.
- China – Foreign Exchange Reserves for May.
- Indonesia – Foreign Exchange Reserves for May.
- Japan – Foreign Exchange Reserves for May.
- Japan – Coincident Index Prel for April.
- Japan – Leading Economic Index Prel for April.
- Switzerland – Unemployment Rate for May.
- Switzerland – Inflation Rate year over year for May.
- Switzerland – Inflation Rate month over month for May.
- Switzerland – Foreign Exchange Reserves for May.
- Germany – Factory Orders month over month for April.
- Spain – Industrial Production year over year for April.
- Spain – Consumer Confidence for May.
- UK – Halifax House Price Index month over month for May.
- UK – Halifax House Price Index year over year for May.
- UK – BBA Mortgage Rate for May.
- Singapore – Foreign Exchange Reserves for May.
Tuesday, June 08, 2021
- South Korea – Current Account for April.
- Japan – Average Cash Earnings year over year for April.
- Japan – Current Account for April.
- Japan – GDP Growth Rate Final quarter over quarter for the first quarter of 2021.
- Japan – GDP Growth Annualized Final for the first quarter of 2021.
- Japan – GDP Capital Expenditure quarter over quarter for the first quarter of 2021.
- Japan – Bank Lending year over year for May.
- Japan – GDP External Demand quarter over quarter for the first quarter of 2021.
- Japan – GDP Private Consumption quarter over quarter for the first quarter of 2021.
- Japan – GDP Price Index Final quarter over quarter for the first quarter of 2021.
- Australia – HIA New Home Sales month over month for May.
- Australia – NAB Business Confidence for May.
- Germany – Industrial Production month over month for April.
- Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for June.
- Germany – ZEW Current Conditions for June.
- France – Balance of Trade for April.
- France – Current Account for April.
- Italy – Retail Sales month over month for April.
- Italy – Retail Sales year over year for April.
- Euro Area – Employment Change Final year over year for the first quarter of 2021.
- Euro Area – Employment Change Final quarter over quarter for the first quarter of 2021.
- Euro Area – GDP Growth Rate quarter over quarter for the fir 3rd Est for the first quarter of 2021.
- Euro Area – GDP Growth Rate year over year 3rd Est for the first quarter of 2021.
- Euro Area – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for June.
- Canada – Balance of Trade for April.
- Canada – Exports for April.
- Canada – Imports for April.
- US – NFIB Business Optimism Index for May.
- US – Balance of Trade for April.
- US – Exports for April.
- US – Imports for April.
- US – Redbook year over year for the week of 05 June.
- US – JOLTs Job Openings for April.
- US – API Crude Oil Stock Change for the week of 04 June.
Wednesday, June 09, 2021
- New Zealand – Manufacturing sales year over year for the first quarter of 2021.
- South Korea – GDP Growth Rate Final quarter over quarter for the first quarter of 2021.
- South Korea – GDP Growth Rate year over year Final for the first quarter of 2021.
- South Korea – Unemployment Rate for May.
- Australia – RBA Kent Speech.
- Australia – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change for June.
- Australia – Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for June.
- Australia – Building Permits Final month over month for April.
- New Zealand – ANZ Business Confidence Prel for June.
- China – Inflation Rate year over year for May.
- China – Inflation Rate month over month for May.
- China – PPI year over year for May.
- Germany – Balance of Trade for April.
- Germany – Imports month over month for April.
- Germany – Exports month over month for April.
- Germany – Current Account for April.
- Japan – Machine Tool Orders year over year for May.
- Canada – BoC Interest Rate Decision.
- US – MBA Mortgage Applications for the week of 04 June.
- US – Wholesale Inventories month over month for April.
- US – EIA Gasoline Stocks change for the week of 04 June.
- US – EIA Crude Oil Stocks change for the week of 04 June.
Thursday, June 10, 2021
- Japan – Foreign Bond Investment for the week of 05 June.
- Japan – Stock Investment by Foreigners for the week of 05 June.
- Japan – PPI month over month for May.
- Japan – PPI month over month for May.
- Japan – PPI year over year for May.
- Australia – Consumer Inflation Expectations for June.
- Indonesia – Retail Sales year over year for April.
- France – Non-Farm Payrolls quarter over quarter for the first quarter of 2021.
- France – Private Non-Farm Payrolls Final quarter over quarter for the first quarter of 2021.
- France – Industrial Production month over month for April.
- Italia – Industrial Production month over month for April.
- Italia – Industrial Production year over year for April.
- Euro Area – Deposit Facility Rate.
- Euro Area – ECB Interest Rate Decision.
- Euro Area – Marginal Lending Rate.
- Euro Area – ECB Press Conference.
- US – Core Inflation Rate year over year for May.
- US – Inflation Rate year over year for May.
- US – Inflation Rate month over month for May.
- US – Initial Jobless Claims for the week until 05 June.
- US – Jobless Claims 4-week Average for the week until 05 June.
- US – Core Inflation Rate month over month for May.
- US – Continuing Jobless Claims for the week until 29 May.
- Canada – BoC Gov Lane Speech.
- China – New Yuan Loans May.
- China – Outstanding Loan Growth year over year for May.
- China – Total Social Financing for May.
- China – M2 Money Supply year over year for May.
Friday, June 11, 2021
- South Korea – Export Prices year over year for May.
- South Korea – Import Prices year over year for May.
- New Zealand – Business NZ PMI for May.
- New Zealand – Electronic Retail Card Spending year over year for May.
- New Zealand – Electronic Retail Card Spending month over month for May.
- Japan – BSI Large Manufacturing quarter over quarter for Q2.
- Germany – Wholesale Prices month over month for May.
- Germany – Wholesale Prices year over year for May.
- Germany – Bundesbank Semi-Annual Forecasts.
- UK – Balance of Trade for April.
- UK – Industrial Production year over year for April.
- UK – Industrial Production month over month for April.
- UK – GDP 3-Month Avg for April.
- UK – Manufacturing Production year over year for April.
- UK – Construction Output year over year for April.
- UK – GDP year over year for April.
- UK – Goods Trade Balance for April.
- UK – GDP month over month for April.
- UK – Manufacturing Production month over month for April.
- UK – NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker May.
- Spain – Harmonised Inflation Rate Final month over month for May.
- Spain – Harmonised Inflation Rate Final year over year for May.
- Spain – Inflation Rate Final year over year for May.
- Spain – Inflation Rate Final month over month for May.
- France – IEA Oil Market Report.
- Canada – Capacity Utilization for the first quarter of 2021.
- US – Michigan Current Conditions Prel for June.
- US – Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel for June.
- US – Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel for June.
- US – Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel for June.
- US – Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel for June.
- US – Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count for the week of 11 June.
- US – Baker Hughes Total Rig Count for the week of 11 June.
- China – Vehicle Sales year over year for May.
