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The Bank of Canada raised its interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50%, the first interest rate increase since 2018. The Bank stressed the need for a further interest rate hike to bring inflation back to the BoC target at 2.00%. The BoC announced that for now, they will leave their balance sheet unchanged and will not start reducing it until it needs it.
Last week in the testimony in front of Congress, Chairman Powell said that he doesn’t see a 0.50% rate hike in their next monetary meeting, which means that the FED will raise their interest rate by 0.25% on March 16 of 2022. Chairman Powell also admitted that the FED was late and waited too long to make the necessary changes on their monetary policy to fight the spike in the US inflation. This week on Thursday, the tenth of March 2022, we have the release of the latest Inflation report for the US. It is expected that the US inflation rate year over year will increase to 7.90%. So yes, maybe the FOMC members and Chairman Powell will wait until the inflation hits 10.00% before they make any meaningful changes in the FED monetary policy. The FED is in the corner, they had their chance for balanced and gradual monetary policy changes, now that train has left the station.
This week on Thursday the 10th of March 2022, we will hear the latest monetary statement from the ECB. In a press conference, the president of the ECB Christine Lagarde will announce the ECB plans for their Aset Purchase Program and interest rate. The ECB is in a very tough spot, with rising energy prices, spiking inflation, weak EUR, and economic uncertainty for Europe because of the war and the sanction against Russia. The bank needs to decide how to balance economic growth and rising inflation.
The senseless Putin war continues, more and more peaceful civilians are been killed in Ukraine, and that is a war crime. The western world stays united against Putin, placing more and more sanctions on Putin’s Russia. The other elephant in the room is learning and drawing conclusions from the situation. Energy prices skyrocketed, which is pushing inflation higher across the world. On Monday morning, some signals are coming out of Russia looks like Putin is shifting position. Putin has stated what he wants so that he can be able to politically get out of this war. Is that a bluff to win more time, or a realization from Putin that there are no other win options for him and therefore, he has now announced his conditions so that he can declare win in front of Russian peoples and end the war? Either way, Putin committed war crimes, killing thousands of civilians, and in the eyes of the world, Putin is a terrorist.
Focus for the week ahead is on the following economic data releases:
Monday, 07, March 2022
- Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves FEB
- Australia ANZ Job Advertisements MoM FEB
- China Balance of Trade JAN-FEB
- China Exports YoY JAN-FEB
- China Imports YoY JAN-FEB
- China Foreign Exchange Reserves FEB
- Switzerland Unemployment Rate FEB
- Germany Retail Sales MoM JAN
- Germany Retail Sales YoY JAN
- Germany Factory Orders MoM JAN
- UK Halifax House Price Index MoM FEB
- UK Halifax House Price Index YoY FEB
- UK BBA Mortgage Rate FEB
- France Foreign Exchange Reserves FEB
- France 3-Month BTF Auction
- France 12-Month BTF Auction
- France 6-Month BTF Auction
- Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves FEB
- US 3-Month Bill Auction
- US 6-Month Bill Auction
- US Consumer Credit Change JAN
Tuesday, 08, March 2022
- Australia RBA Bullock Speech
- Australia NAB Business Confidence FEB
- Japan Average Cash Earnings YoY JAN
- Japan Overtime Pay YoY JAN
- Japan Current Account JAN
- Japan Bank Lending YoY FEB
- Japan Coincident Index Prel JAN
- Japan Leading Economic Index Prel JAN
- Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current FEB
- Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook FEB
- Germany Industrial Production MoM JAN
- Germany Bundesbank Mauderer Speech
- Germany Current Account JAN
- Spain Industrial Production YoY JAN
- Spain 3-Month Letras Auction
- Spain Consumer Confidence FEB
- Italy Retail Sales MoM JAN
- Italy Retail Sales YoY JAN
- Euro Area GDP Growth Rate QoQ 3rd Est Q4
- Euro Area GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est Q4
- Euro Area Employment Change QoQ Final Q4
- Euro Area Employment Change YoY Final Q4
- UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY FEB
- UK 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction
- Canada Balance of Trade JAN
- Canada Exports JAN
- Canada Imports JAN
- US NFIB Business Optimism Index FEB
- US Balance of Trade JAN
- US Exports JAN
- US Imports JAN
- US Redbook YoY 05/MAR
- US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism MAR
- US Wholesale Inventories MoM JAN
- US NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs
- US 3-Year Note Auction
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change 04/MAR
- New Zealand Manufacturing Sales YoY Q4
Wednesday, 09, 2022
- Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech
- Australia RBA Debelle Speech
- Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change MAR
- Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index MAR
- Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q4
- Japan GDP Growth Annualized Final Q4
- Japan GDP External Demand QoQ Final Q4
- Japan GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ Final Q4
- Japan GDP Private Consumption QoQ Final Q4
- Japan GDP Price Index YoY Final Q4
- Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY FEB
- China Inflation Rate YoY FEB
- China Inflation Rate MoM FEB
- China PPI YoY FEB
- France Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Q4
- France Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Final Q4
- Italy Industrial Production MoM JAN
- Italy Industrial Production YoY JAN
- US MBA Mortgage Market Index 04/MAR
- US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index 04/MAR
- US MBA Purchase Index 04/MAR
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate 04/MAR
- US MBA Mortgage Applications 04/MAR
- US JOLTs Job Openings JAN
- US JOLTs Job Quits JAN
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 04/MAR
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 04/MAR
- US EIA Gasoline Production Change 04/MAR
- US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change 04/MAR
- US EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change 04/MAR
- US EIA Distillate Stocks Change 04/MAR
- US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change 04/MAR
- US EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change 04/MAR
- US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change 04/MAR
- US NY Fed Treasury Purchases 2.25 to 4.5 yrs
- US WASDE Report
- US 10-Year Note Auction
- New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY FEB
- New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM FEB
Thursday, 10, March 2022
- South Korea Presidential Elections
- Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners 05/MAR
- Japan Foreign Bond Investment 05/MAR
- Japan PPI YoY FEB
- Japan PPI MoM FEB
- Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations MAR
- Australia Building Permits MoM Final JAN
- Australia Private House Approvals MoM Final JAN
- Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speech
- Italy PPI MoM JAN
- Italy PPI YoY JAN
- Italy 12-Month BOT Auction
- Euro Area CB Interest Rate Decision
- Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate
- Euro Area Marginal Lending Rate
- Euro Area ECB Press Conference
- Euro Area ECB Macroeconomic Projections
- US Core Inflation Rate YoY FEB
- US Inflation Rate YoY FEB
- US Inflation Rate MoM FEB
- US Core Inflation Rate MoM FEB
- US Initial Jobless Claims 05/MAR
- US Jobless Claims 4-week Average 05/MAR
- US Continuing Jobless Claims 26/FEB
- US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change 04/MAR
- US 8-Week Bill Auction
- US 4-Week Bill Auction
- US Fed Quarterly Financial Accounts
- US 30-Year Bond Auction
- US Monthly Budget Statement FEB
- New Zealand Business NZ PMI FEB
- New Zealand Food Inflation YoY FEB
- New Zealand Food Inflation YoY FEB
- China New Yuan Loans FEB
- China Outstanding Loan Growth YoY FEB
- China Total Social Financing FEB
- China M2 Money Supply YoY FEB
Friday, 11, March 2022
- South Korea Current Account JAN
- Japan Household Spending YoY JAN
- Japan Household Spending MoM JAN
- Japan BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ Q1
- Germany Inflation Rate MoM Final FEB
- Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final FEB
- Germany Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final FEB
- Germany Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Final FEB
- UK GDP MoM JAN
- UK GDP 3-Month Avg JAN
- UK Construction Output YoY JAN
- UK Industrial Production YoY JAN
- UK Manufacturing Production YoY JAN
- UK Balance of Trade JAN
- UK Goods Trade Balance JAN
- UK Goods Trade Balance Non-EU JAN
- UK GDP YoY JAN
- UK Manufacturing Production MoM JAN
- UK Industrial Production MoM JAN
- Spain Inflation Rate MoM Final FEB
- Spain Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Final FEB
- Spain Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Final FEB
- Spain Inflation Rate YoY Final FEB
- Canada Unemployment Rate FEB
- Canada Employment Change FEB
- Canada Full Time Employment Chg FEB
- Canada Participation Rate FEB
- Canada Part-Time Employment Chg FEB
- Canada Average Hourly Wages YoY FEB
- Canada Capacity Utilization Q4
- Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales JAN
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel MAR
- US Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel MAR
- US Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel MAR
- US Michigan Current Conditions Prel MAR
- US Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel MAR
- US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 11/MAR
- US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 11/MAR
- China Vehicle Sales YoY FEB
