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Last week ended with increased volatility caused by the release of a report for the US PCE Price Index YoY APR, which came at 3.6% vs. an expectation for 3.00% and previous at 2.4%. That was another evidence of inflation pressure in the US and the possible overheating of the US economy. The market participants will receive the latest read of the US inflation on June the 10th of 2021.
The Republicans offered 928B$ Infrastructure Bill to the White House administration, it looks like the two sides are getting closer to a deal on the Infrastructure Bill. That and the Biden 6 trillion dollars budget proposal will maintain the bearish pressure on the USD.
Next week the markets will hear from FED Chairman Powell on Friday right before the US Non-Farm Payrolls for May. Any comments about a potential QE tapering from Chairman Powell will cause volatility in the markets. On top of that, next week, we have Manufacturing PMIs and Service PMIs and GDP and PPI data release for many countries, which will make the week even more intense.
The markets are looking ahead and focus on the following events during June 2021.
- Australia Cash Rate – on Tuesday, June the 1st, 2021.
- Australia RBA Rate Statement – on Tuesday, June the 1st, 2021.
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Thursday the 3rd, 2021.
- US Non-Farm Employment Change – Friday the 4th, 2021.
- US Unemployment Rate – Friday the 4th, 2021.
- Canada BOC Rate Statement – Wednesday, June the 9th, 2021.
- Canada BOC Press Conference – Wednesday, June the 9th, 2021.
- Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Statement – Thursday, June the 10th, 2021.
- Euro Area ECB Press Conference- Thursday, June the 10th, 2021.
- US CPI m/m – Thursday, June the 10th, 2021.
- US Core CPI m/m – Thursday, June the 10th, 2021.
- US FOMC Statement – Wednesday, June the 16th, 2021.
- US Federal Funds Rate – Wednesday, June the 16th, 2021.
- US FOMC Press Conference – Wednesday, June the 16th, 2021.
- Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment – Thursday, June the 17th, 2021.
- Switzerland SNB Policy Rate – Thursday, June the 17th, 2021.
- Switzerland SNB Press Conference – Thursday, June the 17th, 2021.
As we can see from the schedule above, the month of June is shaping to be an interesting and perhaps volatile one for the markets.
June will start with the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision and press conference. Are we going to see a similar statement from RBA to what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced last week? That is unlikely, but any comments for potential future changes in the RBA interest rates will cause a reaction in the AUD.
On Wednesday, June the 9th, 2021, we will learn the latest statement from the Bank of Canada. Will the bank reduce their weekly bond purchasing again, based on the latest inflation and employment data for Canada.
Immediately after that, the markets are looking for the ECB Monetary Statement and press conference. There are expectations that the ECB will reduce their bond purchase under the Pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP).
In the middle of June, on June the 16th, 2021, all eyes will be on the elephant in the room. It looks like we now have two groups among the members of the FOMC, one group thinks that it is a good idea to start the conversation about QE tapering, and the other thinks, that it is still too early. Ultimately it will be a time for Chairman Powell to steer the ship in a direction that unites the members of the FOMC. Judging by the lack of reaction in the markets, it looks like the market participants are not expecting any changes from the FED during the June FOMC Statement. However, that may change in the weeks ahead of the FOMC Press Conference.
The focus for the week ahead is on the following events:
Monday, May 31, 2021
- South Korea Construction Output YoY APR.
- South Korea Industrial Production YoY APR.
- South Korea Industrial Production MoM APR.
- South Korea Manufacturing Production YoY APR.
- South Korea Retail Sales MoM APR.
- South Korea Retail Sales YoY APR.
- Japan Industrial Production MoM Prel APR.
- Japan Industrial Production YoY Prel APR.
- Japan Retail Sales YoY APR.
- Japan Retail Sales MoM APR.
- Japan Consumer Confidence MAY.
- Japan Housing Starts YoY APR.
- Japan Construction Orders YoY APR.
- China NBS Manufacturing PMI MAY.
- China Non-Manufacturing PMI MAY.
- New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence Final MAY.
- Australia Private Sector Credit YoY APR.
- Australia Private Sector Credit MoM APR.
- Singapore Bank Lending APR.
- Spain Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAY.
- Spain Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Prel MAY.
- Spain Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAY.
- Spain Inflation Rate MoM Prel MAY.
- Spain Current Account MAR.
- Euro Area Loans to Households YoY APR.
- Euro Area Loans to Companies YoY APR.
- Euro Area M3 Money Supply YoY APR.
- Italy Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAY.
- Italy Inflation Rate MoM Prel MAY.
- Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAY.
- Italy Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Prel MAY.
- Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAY.
- Germany Inflation Rate MoM Prel MAY.
- Germany Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAY.
- Germany Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Prel MAY.
- Canada Current Account Q1.
- Canada PPI MoM Final APR.
- Canada PPI YoY Final APR.
- Canada Raw Materials Prices YoY APR.
- Canada Raw Materials Prices MoM APR.
Tuesday, June 01, 2021
- Australia Ai Group Manufacturing Index MAY.
- Australia Markit Manufacturing PMI Final MAY.
- Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM MAY.
- Australia Building Permits MoM Prel APR.
- Australia Business Inventories QoQ Q1.
- Australia Company Gross Profits QoQ Q1.
- Australia Current Account Q1.
- Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision.
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI MAY.
- New Zealand Building Permits MoM APR.
- Japan Capital Spending YoY Q1.
- Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final MAY.
- South Korea Exports YoY MAY.
- South Korea Balance of Trade MAY.
- South Korea Imports YoY MAY.
- South Korea Markit Manufacturing PMI MAY.
- Germany Unemployment Rate Harmonised APR.
- Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Final MAY.
- Germany Unemployment Change MAY.
- Germany Unemployment Rate MAY.
- UK Nationwide Housing Prices YoY MAY.
- UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM MAY.
- UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final MAY.
- UK BoE Gov Bailey Speech.
- Switzerland Retail Sales YoY APR.
- Switzerland Retail Sales MoM APR.
- Switzerland GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1.
- Switzerland GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1.
- Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI MAY.
- Spain Tourist Arrivals YoY APR.
- Spain Markit Manufacturing PMI MAY.
- Spain New Car Sales YoY MAY.
- Italy IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI MAY.
- Italy Unemployment Rate APR.
- Italy GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q1.
- Italy GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1.
- France Markit Manufacturing PMI Final MAY.
- France New Car Registrations YoY MAY.
- Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI Final MAY.
- Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash MAY.
- Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash MAY.
- Euro Area Inflation Rate MoM Flash MAY.
- Euro Area Unemployment Rate APR.
- Canada GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1.
- Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q1.
- Canada GDP MoM MAR.
- Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI MAY.
- Canada GDP Implicit Price QoQ Q1.
- US Markit Manufacturing PMI Final MAY.
- US Construction Spending MoM APR.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI MAY.
- US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism JUN.
- US ISM Manufacturing Employment MAY.
- US ISM Manufacturing New Orders MAY.
- US ISM Manufacturing Prices MAY.
- US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index MAY.
Wednesday, June 02, 2021
- New Zealand Terms of Trade QoQ Q1.
- New Zealand Export Prices QoQ Q1.
- New Zealand Import Prices QoQ Q1.
- South Korea Inflation Rate YoY MAY.
- South Korea Inflation Rate MoM MAY.
- Indonesia Markit Manufacturing PMI MAY.
- Indonesia Inflation Rate YoY MAY.
- Indonesia Inflation Rate MoM MAY.
- Indonesia Tourist Arrivals YoY APR.
- Indonesia Core Inflation Rate YoY MAY.
- Australia GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q1.
- Australia GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1.
- Australia GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ Q1.
- Australia RBA Chart Pack.
- Australia GDP Final Consumption QoQ Q1.
- Australia GDP Deflator QoQ Q1.
- Australia RBA Debelle Speech.
- Germany Retail Sales MoM APR.
- Germany Retail Sales YoY APR.
- France Budget Balance APR.
- Spain Unemployment Change MAY.
- UK Mortgage Lending APR .
- UK Mortgage Approvals APR.
- UK BoE Consumer Credit APR.
- UK Net Lending to Individuals MoM APR.
- Euro Area PPI MoM APR.
- Euro Area PPI YoY APR.
- Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech.
- US Total Vehicle Sales MAY.
- US MBA Mortgage Applications 28/MAY.
- US Redbook YoY 29/MAY.
- US Fed Evans Speech.
- US Fed Bostic Speech.
- US Fed Beige Book.
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change 28/MAY.
- Canada Building Permits MoM APR.
- Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI MAY.
Thursday, June 03, 2021
- South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY.
- Australia Ai Group Construction Index MAY.
- Australia Markit Services PMI Final MAY.
- Australia Markit Composite PMI Final MAY.
- Australia Balance of Trade APR.
- Australia Retail Sales MoM Final APR.
- Australia Imports MoM APR.
- Australia Exports MoM APR.
- Japan Foreign Bond Investment MAY.
- Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners MAY.
- Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI Final MAY.
- Japan Jibun Bank Composite PMI Final MAY.
- Singapore Markit PMI MAY.
- China Caixin Services PMI MAY.
- China Caixin Composite PMI MAY.
- Spain Markit Services PMI MAY.
- Spain Markit Composite PMI MAY.
- Italy IHS Markit Services PMI MAY.
- Italy IHS Markit Composite PMI MAY.
- France Markit Services PMI Final MAY.
- France Markit Composite PMI Final MAY.
- Germany Markit Services PMI Final MAY.
- Germany Markit Composite PMI Final MAY.
- Euro Area Markit Services PMI Final MAY.
- Euro Area Markit Composite PMI Final MAY.
- UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Final MAY.
- UK Markit/CIPS Composite PMI Final MAY.
- UK BoE Gov Bailey Speech.
- US Challenger Job Cuts MAY.
- US ADP Employment Change MAY.
- US Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final Q1.
- US Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final Q1.
- US Jobless Claims 4-week Average MAY/29.
- US Initial Jobless Claims 29/MAY.
- US Continuing Jobless Claims 22/MAY.
- US Markit Services PMI Final MAY.
- US Markit Composite PMI Final MAY.
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI MAY.
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity MAY.
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices MAY.
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders MAY.
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment MAY.
- US Fed Bostic Speech.
- US Fed Quarles Speech.
Friday, June 04, 2021
- Japan Household Spending MoM APR.
- Japan Household Spending YoY APR.
- Australia Home Loans MoM APR.
- Australia Investment Lending for Homes APR.
- Singapore Retail Sales YoY APR.
- Singapore Retail Sales MoM APR.
- France Construction PMI MAY.
- France Retail Sales MoM APR.
- France Retail Sales YoY APR.
- Germany Construction PMI MAY.
- Germany New Car Registrations YoY MAY.
- Italy Construction PMI MAY.
- UK New Car Sales YoY MAY.
- UK Construction PMI MAY.
- Euro Area Construction PMI MAY.
- Euro Area Retail Sales MoM APR.
- Euro Area Retail Sales YoY APR.
- Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech.
- Canada Unemployment Rate MAY.
- Canada Employment Change MAY.
- Canada Full Time Employment Chg. MAY.
- Canada Participation Rate MAY.
- Canada Part-Time Employment Chg. MAY.
- Canada Labor Productivity QoQ Q1.
- Canada Average Hourly Wages YoY MAY.
- Canada Ivey PMI MAY.
- US Fed Chair Powell Speech.
- US Non-Farm Payrolls MAY.
- US Unemployment Rate MAY.
- US Average Weekly Hours MAY.
- US Participation Rate MAY.
- US Average Hourly Earnings YoY MAY.
- US Government Payrolls MAY.
- US Manufacturing Payrolls MAY.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls Private MAY.
- US Average Hourly Earnings MoM MAY.
- US Factory Orders MoM APR.
- US Factory Orders ex Transportation APR.
