Expect low liquidity and low volume for this week, especially on Thursday and Friday before the Easter celebration around the world and ahead of the big weekend to kick start the month of April. Unusual random moves in the markets are to be expected because traders and institutions will close or trim their positions to reduce risk exposure before the Easter holiday. Therefore, prepare for range-bound movements in the markets or false breakouts cost by the low liquidity.
It may sound like a week we may skip, however, we have an OPEC meeting on Thursday 1st of April 2021 and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday the 2nd of April. Therefore prepare for volatility in the Oil market and volatility in the currency market as well.
An interesting report from the past week was the report, which was first published by The New York Times that the Biden’s administration is working on an economic package for $3 trillion that includes infrastructure. The details for this spending plan to be released in the coming month.
This morning the EU markets wake up to news about warnings for losses from Credit Suisse and Nomura. Last week we saw big moves in some individual stocks in the US markets followed by reports for margin call for a specific hedge fund. In the previous week, we saw the collapse of the British finance firm Greensil Capital. Deleverage is a scary thing, and once it starts in a few stocks, it can quickly spread to all the markets. Therefore, we must pay attention to what is happening on the markets, and how one event may affect the market participants’ psychology.
In Europe, the German chancellor Angela Merkel is warning the public that the 3rd COV19 wave could be worst than the 2nd one. The fact that Europe is hit by a 3rd COV19 wave and the slow process of rolling out vaccination will continue putting pressure on the EUR.
On the economic front, the markets will watch the following economics data releases:
- New Zealand Building Consents m/m – Tuesday, 30.03.2021
- Japan Unemployment Rate – Tuesday, 30.03.2021
- Japan Retail Sales y/y – Tuesday, 30.03.2021
- German Import Prices m/m – Tuesday, 30.03.2021
- German Prelim CPI m/m – Tuesday, 30.03.2021
- Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer – Tuesday, 30.03.2021
- Spanish Flash CPI y/y – Tuesday, 30.03.2021
- FOMC Member Quarles Speaks – Tuesday, 30.03.2021
- US CB Consumer Confidence – Tuesday, 30.03.2021
- FOMC Member Williams Speaks – Tuesday, 30.03.2021
- Japan Prelim Industrial Production m/m – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- New Zealand Final ANZ Business Confidence – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- Australia Building Approvals m/m – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- Australia Private Sector Credit m/m – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- China Manufacturing PMI – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- China Non-Manufacturing PMI – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- UK Final GDP q/q – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- UK Current Account – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- UK Nationwide HPI m/m – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- UK Revised Business Investment q/q – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- French Consumer Spending m/m – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- French Prelim CPI m/m – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- German Unemployment Change – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- EU CPI Flash Estimate y/y – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- EU Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- Italian Prelim CPI m/m – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- Canada GDP m/m – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- US Chicago PMI – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- US Pending Home Sales m/m – Wednesday, 31.03.2021
- OPEC-JMMC Meetings – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- Australia AIG Manufacturing Index – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- Australia Retail Sales m/m – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- Australia Trade Balance – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- Japan Tankan Manufacturing Index – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- Japan Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- Japan Final Manufacturing PMI – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- German Retail Sales m/m – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- Swiss CPI m/m – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- Swiss Retail Sales y/y – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- Swiss Manufacturing PMI – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- Spanish Manufacturing PMI – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- Italian Manufacturing PMI – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- French Final Manufacturing PMI – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- German Final Manufacturing PMI – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- EU Final Manufacturing PMI – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- UK Final Manufacturing PMI – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- US Unemployment Claims – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- US Final Manufacturing PMI – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- US Construction Spending m/m – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- US ISM Manufacturing Prices – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- US ISM Manufacturing Prices – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- Canada Manufacturing PMI – Thursday, 01.04.2021
- US Average Hourly Earnings m/m – Friday, 02.04.2021
- US Non-Farm Employment Change- Friday, 02.04.2021
- US Unemployment Rate – Friday, 02.04.2021
